Stats wizard Nate Silver, who has taken his fivethirtyeight.com site to the New York Times, now says the race between Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and Republican challenger Jesse Kelly is neck and neck. You can find details here.
In other news: Silver throws cold water on the notion that Congressman Raul Grijalva is in real trouble:
Likewise, I would be skeptical of some hopeful-seeming polling for Republicans in districts like Massachusetts’ 4th and Arizona’s 7th, where two members of the Democratic leadership — Barney Frank and Raul Grijalva — are running for re-election.
Still, the fact remains that if Democrats were to lose 60 or 70 seats — outcomes that are entirely possible — there are going to be some “shocking” outcomes in individual districts. They just may not necessarily be in the districts where some enterprising candidate has gotten cute by releasing an dubious poll.
Read the whole analysis here.