Are Congressional Democrats Surging? Doubt It

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Yesterday's NPR poll was lousy news for Democrats in close races like Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. But today, the Dems are taking heart in an AP poll:

The reeling economy remains people's top concern, according to an Associated Press-GfK Poll conducted earlier this month, making public attitudes about it crucial for both parties' hopes in November. The good news for Democrats: By a margin of 47 percent to 42 percent, people trust them more than Republicans to guide the economy, and slightly more - 64 percent - say their household budgets are in good shape.

In addition, people want Democrats to win control of Congress by a 46 percent to 39 percent margin. That is the second straight month in which Democrats have held a delicate advantage on that question since April, when 44 percent preferred Republicans and 41 percent picked Democrats.

Here's the methodology, per AP:

The AP-GfK Poll involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,044 randomly chosen adults and was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 9-14. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Unless those adults are voters, it sounds like a pretty flimsy sample to be pinning your hopes on. We'd guess at this point that the NPR poll, which hit up voters in swing districts, is probably closer to reality. If you want to see really bad news, check out the section on messaging. The GOP wins big when it comes to framing the debate.

PDF of the NPR poll here.

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